Events

Monday, March 7, 2016 -
4:00pm to 5:30pm
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Fainsod (Littauer 324), 79 JFK St., Cambridge

Europe and the Geopolitics of Energy Study Group

Ole Gunnar Austvik, M-RCBG, leads a discussion on "The Failure of Long-term Oil Price Forecasting." Michael Lynch stated in his MIT paper of 1992 “The Fog of Commerce” that the continuous inability to forecast long-term oil prices was neither caused by history, extrapolation, conservatism or wishful thinking. They just appear to be logical, calling for market stability and consensus. Lynch argued that the rising price forecasts are results of psychological and institutional factors rather than any model for how the market works. In a multidisciplinary understanding I attempted, in an article from 1992, “Limits to oil pricing,” to determine boundaries for how the price may develop over time, rather than to rely on more or less exact forecasts. In the seminar, the continuous failures in long-term oil price forecasting will be presented and how the oil market can be better understood discussed.

Readings:

Michael Lynch, 1992: "The Fog of Commerce. The Failure of Long-Term Oil Market Forecasting." MIT  Working Paper 1992 (E38-648). 

Ole Gunnar Austvik, 1992: "Limits to Oil Pricing. Scenario Planning as a Device to Understand Oil Price Developments." Energy Policy vol 20/no.11 pp. 1097-1105. 

Advance registration is not required. All sessions are open.

Contact Name: 

Ole Gunnar Austvik

Research Areas: 

Harvard University
Center for the Environment

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